From 2000 Bush-Gore to 2006 Italian elections: Voting at fifty-fifty and the Contrarian Effect

A sociophysical model for opinion dynamics is shown to embody a series of recent western hung national votes all set at the unexpected and very improbable edge of a fifty-fifty score. It started with the Bush-Gore 2000 American presidential election, followed by the 2002 Stoiber-Schr\H{o}der, then the 2005 Schr\H{o}der-Merkel German elections, and finally the 2006 Prodi-Berlusconi Italian elections. In each case, the country was facing drastic choices, the running competing parties were advocating very different programs and millions of voters were involved. Moreover, polls were given a substantial margin for the predicted winner. While all these events were perceived as accidental and isolated, our model suggests that indeed they are deterministic and obey to one single universal phenomena associated to the effect of contrarian behavior on the dynamics of opinion forming. The not hung Bush-Kerry 2005 presidential election is shown to belong to the same universal frame. To conclude, the existence of contrarians hints at the repetition of hung elections in the near future.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figure

Opinion dynamics in a three-choice system

We generalize Galam's model of opinion spreading by introducing three competing choices. At each update, the population is randomly divided in groups of three agents, whose members adopt the opinion of the local majority. In the case of a tie, the local group adopts opinion A, B or C with probabilities alpha, beta and (1-alpha-beta) respectively. We derive the associated phase diagrams and dynamics by both analytical means and simulations. Polarization is always reached within very short time scales. We point out situations in which an initially very small minority opinion can invade the whole system.Comment: To appear in European Physical Journal B. A few errors corrected, some figures redrawn from the first versio

Sociophysics: A review of Galam models

We review a series of models of sociophysics introduced by Galam and Galam et al in the last 25 years. The models are divided in five different classes, which deal respectively with democratic voting in bottom up hierarchical systems, decision making, fragmentation versus coalitions, terrorism and opinion dynamics. For each class the connexion to the original physical model and technics are outlined underlining both the similarities and the differences. Emphasis is put on the numerous novel and counterintuitive results obtained with respect to the associated social and political framework. Using these models several major real political events were successfully predicted including the victory of the French extreme right party in the 2000 first round of French presidential elections, the voting at fifty - fifty in several democratic countries (Germany, Italy, Mexico), and the victory of the no to the 2005 French referendum on the European constitution. The perspectives and the challenges to make sociophysics a predictive solid field of science are discussed.Comment: 17 pages, 20 figure

The dynamics of opinion in hierarchical organizations

We study the mutual influence of authority and persuasion in the flow of opinion. Many social organizations are characterized by a hierarchical structure where the propagation of opinion is asymmetric. In the normal flow of opinion formation a high-rank agent uses its authority (or its persuasion when necessary) to impose its opinion on others. However, agents with no authority may only use the force of its persuasion to propagate their opinions. In this contribution we describe a simple model with no social mobility, where each agent belongs to a class in the hierarchy and has also a persuasion capability. The model is studied numerically for a three levels case, and analytically within a mean field approximation, with a very good agreement between the two approaches. The stratum where the dominant opinion arises from is strongly dependent on the percentage of agents in each hierarchy level, and we obtain a phase diagram identifying the relative frequency of prevailing opinions. We also find that the time evolution of the conflicting opinions polarizes after a short transient.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

A new conjecture extends the GM law for percolation thresholds to dynamical situations

The universal law for percolation thresholds proposed by Galam and Mauger (GM) is found to apply also to dynamical situations. This law depends solely on two variables, the space dimension d and a coordinance numberq. For regular lattices, q reduces to the usual coordination number while for anisotropic lattices it is an effective coordination number. For dynamical percolation we conjecture that the law is still valid if we use the number q_2 of second nearest neighbors instead of q. This conjecture is checked for the dynamic epidemic model which considers the percolation phenomenon in a mobile disordered system. The agreement is good.Comment: 8 pages, latex, 3 figures include

Chaotic, staggered and polarized dynamics in opinion forming: the contrarian effect

We revisit the no tie breaking 2-state Galam contrarian model of opinion dynamics for update groups of size 3. While the initial model assumes a constant density of contrarians a for both opinions, it now depends for each opinion on its global support. Proportionate contrarians are thus found to indeed preserve the former case main results. However, restricting the contrarian behavior to only the current collective majority, makes the dynamics more complex with novel features. For a density a<a_c=1/9 of one-sided contrarians, a chaotic basin is found in the fifty-fifty region separated from two majority-minority point attractors, one on each side. For 1/9<a< 0.301 only the chaotic basin survives. In the range a>0.301 the chaotic basin disappears and the majority starts to alternate between the two opinions with a staggered flow towards two point attractors. We then study the effect of both, decoupling the local update time sequence from the contrarian behavior activation, and a smoothing of the majority rule. A status quo driven bias for contrarian activation is also considered. Introduction of unsettled agents driven in the debate on a contrarian basis is shown to only shrink the chaotic basin. The model may shed light to recent apparent contradictory elections with on the one hand very tied results like in US in 2000 and in Germany in 2002 and 2005, and on the other hand, a huge majority like in France in 2002.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

Reshuffling spins with short range interactions: When sociophysics produces physical results

Galam reshuffling introduced in opinion dynamics models is investigated under the nearest neighbor Ising model on a square lattice using Monte Carlo simulations. While the corresponding Galam analytical critical temperature T_C \approx 3.09 [J/k_B] is recovered almost exactly, it is proved to be different from both values, not reshuffled (T_C=2/arcsinh(1) \approx 2.27 [J/k_B]) and mean-field (T_C=4 [J/k_B]). On this basis, gradual reshuffling is studied as function of 0 \leq p \leq 1 where p measures the probability of spin reshuffling after each Monte Carlo step. The variation of T_C as function of p is obtained and exhibits a non-linear behavior. The simplest Solomon network realization is noted to reproduce Galam p=1 result. Similarly to the critical temperature, critical exponents are found to differ from both, the classical Ising case and the mean-field values.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures in 6 eps files, to appear in IJMP

Self-consistency and Symmetry in d-dimensions

Bethe approximation is shown to violate Bravais lattices translational invariance. A new scheme is then presented which goes over the one-site Weiss model yet preserving initial lattice symmetry. A mapping to a one-dimensional finite closed chain in an external field is obtained. Lattice topology determines the chain size. Using recent results in percolation, lattice connectivity between chains is argued to be $(q(d-1)-2)/(d)$ where $q$ is the coordination number and $d$ is the space dimension. A new self-consistent mean-field equation of state is derived. Critical temperatures are thus calculated for a large variety of lattices and dimensions. Results are within a few percent of exact estimates. Moreover onset of phase transitions is found to occur in the range $(d-1)q> 2$. For the Ising hypercube it yields the Golden number limit $d > (1+\sqrt 5)/(2)$.Comment: 16 pages, latex, Phys. Rev. B (in press

Consensus Formation in Multi-state Majority and Plurality Models

We study consensus formation in interacting systems that evolve by multi-state majority rule and by plurality rule. In an update event, a group of G agents (with G odd), each endowed with an s-state spin variable, is specified. For majority rule, all group members adopt the local majority state; for plurality rule the group adopts the local plurality state. This update is repeated until a final consensus state is generally reached. In the mean field limit, the consensus time for an N-spin system increases as ln N for both majority and plurality rule, with an amplitude that depends on s and G. For finite spatial dimensions, domains undergo diffusive coarsening in majority rule when s or G is small. For larger s and G, opinions spread ballistically from the few groups with an initial local majority. For plurality rule, there is always diffusive domain coarsening toward consensus.Comment: 8 pages, 11 figures, 2-column revtex4 format. Updated version: small changes in response to referee comments. For publication in J Phys

A New Universality for Random Sequential Deposition of Needles

Percolation and jamming phenomena are investigated for random sequential deposition of rectangular needles on $d=2$ square lattices. Associated thresholds $p_c^{perc}$ and $p_c^{jam}$ are determined for various needle sizes. Their ratios $p_c^{perc} / p_c^{jam}$ are found to be a constant $0.62 \pm 0.01$ for all sizes. In addition the ratio of jamming thresholds for respectively square blocks and needles is also found to be a constant $0.79 \pm 0.01$. These constants exhibit some universal connexion in the geometry of jamming and percolation for both anisotropic shapes (needles versus square lattices) and isotropic shapes (square blocks on square lattices). A universal empirical law is proposed for all three thresholds as a function of $a$.Comment: 9 pages, latex, 4 eps figures include